Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent performance on second serves shows Elena Rybakina with a slight edge, winning 42.47% of points compared to Aryna Sabalenka's 40.73%. Could this small difference impact the match outcome?
• In return games, both players have nearly identical success when facing second serves: Sabalenka at 47.15% and Rybakina at 47.59%. Who can capitalize more effectively on these chances?
• A difference appears in first serve return stats, where Sabalenka returns 30.52% to Rybakina's 25.04%, suggesting Sabalenka's potential edge in exploiting Rybakina's serves.
• Under pressure, Rybakina slightly outperforms Sabalenka by saving 55.66% of breakpoints versus 53.33%, which might be critical in tight match moments.
• Over the last year, Sabalenka has a superior win rate of 84.00% in all matches, compared to Rybakina's 75.64%.
• Both players have their best surface performances on hard courts, but Sabalenka thrives on outdoor hard (74%), whereas Rybakina excels indoors (74%).
• In high-level tournaments over the last year, Sabalenka has shown stronger form in Masters events, winning 81.58% of matches, while Rybakina has a 70.59% success rate.
• In their direct head-to-head battles, Sabalenka leads with 8 wins to Rybakina's 5 in 13 encounters, showing Sabalenka's historical advantage.
• Matches between the two average about 1:54, indicating competitive, closely-fought contests.
• Sabalenka dominates deciding sets in their matches, claiming victory 7 out of 8 times, suggesting she maintains composure under pressure.
• Sabalenka has been more successful in tiebreaks between the two, winning 3 of the 4 played.
• Opponents faced by Sabalenka in the last year have a slightly higher average ranking than those faced by Rybakina, potentially indicating tougher competition.
• Overall, Sabalenka’s strength in deciding sets, successful track record in head-to-head matches and return game advantage position her slightly ahead.

Editorial Prediction (November 7, 2025, UTC):

Both Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have shown remarkable skills and consistency in their recent performances, with only slight differences in their stats over the last six months. However, small edges could prove crucial in deciding the outcome of their upcoming match.

Sabalenka presents a stronger returning game, particularly in handling first serves, which might allow her to break Rybakina’s key weapon. Furthermore, she has a psychological edge, having won a majority of their direct encounters. Her resilience in clutch situations—shown by her superior performance in deciding sets and tiebreaks—cannot be overlooked.

On the other hand, Rybakina's slight advantage in second serve points and her ability to fend off breakpoints could lead to intense pressure on Sabalenka, forcing her to maintain high standards throughout.

Considering all the performance patterns, Sabalenka appears to hold a narrow edge due to her stronger historical performance against Rybakina, especially in pressure scenarios. Thus, Aryna Sabalenka is favored to win their next matchup.